Miscalculation P (Putin):  

1. RF regular weapons lost to corruption; nukes may be the only reliable weapons they have left//

2. P is watching his life’s work potentially crumble due to western intervention //

3. P seem pulled, ill, what is his state of mind? //

4. P built a church, what is P’s take on the book of REVELATION? //

5. An unexpected 40-billion-dollar western weapons package, Russia is technically fighting an unexpected WW3 for which it is unprepared. P doesn’t seem to have much in terms of good, conventional weapons, but he’s got NUKES!" / / 

6. If we agree one is responsible for the application of their own weapons, then the aid packages have been giving RF grounds to retaliate. Odds are, had random actors and acts of providence not intervened, Hyper War I would've begun 2 years ago. 

The aid to Ukraine was gambling, Casino style. The assumption could have only been "P is insufficiently unstable to retaliate" but, on the grounds above, I believe the threats coming out of Russia were likely as real as they seemed to many.